This effect can be attributed mostly to intense conflicts (that is, those in the top quartile in terms of conflict-related-deaths per million people). Results from growth regressions show that on average, annual growth in countries in conflict is about 2.5 percentage points lower, and the cumulative impact on per capita GDP increases over time. The findings presented in this paper show that the economic impact of conflict in sub-Saharan Africa is large and persistent. Moreover, the nature of conflicts has also changed in recent years, with traditional civil wars being largely replaced by non-state-based conflicts, including the targeting of civilians through terrorist attacks. Since 2010, however, there has been a resurgence in conflict-related deaths, especially in the Sahel region-although they remain below the levels observed in the 1990s. The analysis, based on a sample of 45 sub-Saharan African countries during 1989–2019, shows that after peaking in the late 1990s, the number of conflict incidents and deaths in the region fell substantially during the 2000s. The loss of human life destruction of infrastructure, human capital, and institutions political instability and greater uncertainty associated with conflicts can impede investment and economic growth-not only during conflict but also afterward, making it difficult to escape the “conflict trap.” 3 In addition, conflicts tend to complicate public finances, lowering revenue by destroying part of the tax base while raising military expenditures amd public debt.Īgainst this backdrop, this paper explores the economic consequences of conflict in sub-Saharan Africa by focusing on three key questions: 1) how have the prevalence and intensity of conflict evolved over time 2) what is the impact of conflict on economic growth and 3) what are the fiscal implications of conflict. As history has repeatedly shown, conflicts impose immeasurable human suffering and large economic and social costs.
Overall, about a third of the countries in the region have been affected by conflict in recent years. 2 In sub-Saharan Africa, while a declining trend was observed in the incidence and intensity of conflicts since the early 2000s, there has been an uptick in violence in recent years that mirrors the global increase in conflict. Armed conflict in its various forms and manifestations remains pervasive around the world.
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